sexta-feira, 6 de janeiro de 2017

ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

The Sun was quieter this reporting week compared to the previous
seven days. There were 4 zero-sunspot days, Thursday December 29,
Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday, plus a fifth on the following
Thursday, January 5. Geomagnetic numbers were also lower.
Average daily sunspot number decreased from 7.6 to 4.7, average
daily solar flux declined a half point from 73.6 to 73.1, while
average daily planetary A index went from 17.3 to 9.3. Average
mid-latitude A index went from 11.6 to 6.3.
The latest forecast sees solar flux at 72 on January 6, 71 on
January 7-13, 76 on January 14, 77 on January 15-19, 75 on January
20-24, 74 on January 25-27, 73 on January 28 through February 2, 75
on February 3-7, 76 on February 8-10, and 77 on February 11-15.

The Ap prediction for planetary A index sees 18, 14, 10, 6 and 5 on
January 6-10, then 12 on January 11-12, 8 and 10, on January 13-14,
then 5 on January 15-16, then 25, 20, 25, and 18 on January 17-20,
then 20 on January 21-22, 10 on January 23, and 5 on January 24-26,
then 12, 15, 10, 12 and 18 on January 27-31, then 24, 22, 15 and 8
on February 1-4 and 5 on February 5-9.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH delivered his geomagnetic predictions a day early
this week:

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 6-February 1,
2017.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on January 8-10, 16, 24-25,
Mostly quiet on January 11-12, 15, 26, 30,
Quiet to unsettled on January 23, 27, 29
Quiet to active on January 6-7, 13-14, 17-18, 28, 31
Active to disturbed on January 19-20, (21-22,) February 1

Increases in solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January
6-8, 17-20, 25, (27-31,) and February 1.
Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:
"Nice activity on 6 meter meteor scatter in the Quadrantids Meteor
Shower Jan. 3, 2017.
"I set up portable on 50 MHz about 8 am this morning west of
Lawrence, Kansas. Very cold and strong wind -- wind chill 10 deg F
here in Lawrence.
"Two contacts in 5 minutes -- W4HLR and WZ8D on 50.145 MHz SSB. I
CQ'd a while longer, got cold and packed up.
"Listened from home on 50.145 and heard a loud 'blue whizzer' on
WZ8D at 1447z - worked John again easily with the attic dipole. Near
as I can tell -- the peak of the Quads was between 1400 - 1530z.
"N8JX EN64 heard me earlier, but weak. I am blocked by a hill to the
northeast to N8JX from home, so back out portable at 1510z. Worked
Terry in 2 minutes on 50.145 MHz at 1513z. I was running 100 W and 2
el yagi. He pegged the meter.
"Lots of meteor scatter activity on 6 meters with the new MSK144
mode. It is very efficient. But nice to see the old school SSB
meteor scatter activity in the Quads."
Jon mentioned MSK144, a new WSPR mode for meteor scatter. Details
here:
https://physics.princeton.edu/pulsar/k1jt/Release_Notice.txt
If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions
for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot numbers for December 29, 2016 through January 4, 2017 were
0, 11, 11, 0, 0, 11, and 0, with a mean of 4.7. 10.7 cm flux was
73.4, 73.6, 73.5, 72.5, 73, 73.4, and 72.4, with a mean of 73.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4, 12, 14, 7, 12, and 11, with
a mean of 9.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 10, 9, 5,
8, and 8, with a mean of 6.3.
__________________________________________ 
ARRL Web site memberlist@www.arrl.org
ZCZC AP01
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1  ARLP001
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 6, 2017
To all radio amateurs
 


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